PREDIKSI SEBARAN POTENSIAL GAJAH SUMATERA (Elephas maximus sumatranus) DI SUMATERA UTARA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL MAXENT

Abstrak

The Sumatran Elephant (Elephas maximus sumatranus Temminck, 1847) is an endemic Indonesian animal that plays a vital role as an ecosystem engineer and an indicator of conservation success within the Sumatran tropical rainforest ecosystem. The population of this species has experienced a significant decline due to habitat fragmentation, land use conversion, human elephant conflict, as well as illegal hunting and trade. This study aims to project the potential geographic distribution of the Sumatran Elephant habitat in North Sumatra Province and identify the environmental parameters that most profoundly influence its habitat preferences as a fundamental basis for developing spatial based conservation strategies utilizing the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm. The most influential environmental factors were slope inclination (34.5%, PI: 49.3%), isothermality (27%, PI: 20.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (19.9%, PI: 21.6%), and distance to water (9.8%, PI: 1%). Habitat suitability analysis revealed that highly suitable areas in North Sumatra are extremely limited, covering only 760.84 km2 (1.05%). Moderate suitability encompassed 4,115.78 km2 (5.68%), while low suitability dominated with 67,584.39 km2 (93.27%). This indicates a critical ecological situation, as merely a fraction of the landscape provides optimal conditions for the species survival. These findings emphasize the urgency of integrated conservation strategies amidst increasing forest fragmentation from agricultural expansion. Developing wildlife corridors and protecting priority habitats are crucial to maintain the connectivity and sustainability of the Sumatran Elephant population.